Bitcoin BTCUSD

A potentially positive pattern forming with clear moves up from the c wave. We are currently looking for confirmation of an a/b or c, which would then suggest a decent thrust up. Using Fibonacci, 19936 is the first level to watch.

Ethereum ETUSD

A very similar situation on this chart. Looking positive with a potential 5th wave rally.

Gold

I believe it is important to have some gold (in fact Gold & Silver) in the event of enormous financial problems. A situation I believe to be quite likely. Important to have some reserves in a physical form, hopefully, I’m wrong.

Silver

Silver is seeing a decent rally, but the chart is dithering, and not looking very encouraging.

Ftse

Ftse is looking pretty good right now. From an abc, we have now got 3rd of a 3rd. It certainly looks like we are on he way up. Exactly how far, I don’t know. But certainly positive.

Using the daily chart, the Dax is not in the same league, but the pattern is similar to the Ftse. We could have a 3rd of a 3rd wave coming in. Perhaps more upside than down at the moment.

Dow

Similar story for the Dow, 3rd of a 3rd with a thrust. Close to taking out a new high.

Nasdaq

Looking very negative, looking like we are in a corrective wave 4 at the moment.

Trading update for 1st November ends.

The post Trader Update 1st November 2022 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

Bitcoin BTCUSD

Dithering and nothing happening. Odds of it being successful are reduced. A much sharper move taking out the high would improve the likelihood of success, true 3rd wave stuff.

Ethereum ETUSD

Looking more promising than the Bitcoin Chart, but only slightly. Looking like a possible 4th wave.

Gold

Pretty much unchanged. Could be an uptrend abc, but as yet no confirmation.

Silver

Quite a big decline with an abc, then a continuation. Could be a case for further downside and a short position.

Ftse

Similarly, the Ftse is equally lack lustre. Looking like an abc wave, but generally uninspiring.

Dax

Could be in a 3rd wave, but there isn’t much confirmation. Might be worth watching for a 3rd of a 3rd wave.

Dow

Dow is tedious very similar to the Dax, may be an important low with a third wave. Seems like there is little enthusiasm for the upside.

Nasdaq

A big decline, but virtually nothing at the bottom with regards to a long. Looks like more of a continuation short.

Update for the 25 October ends.

The post Trader Update 25th October 2022 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

Bitcoin Analysis

30996
There are 5 waves up in an ABC formation. Having seen this a week ago, maybe less I said that we should be worried about the level around 41318 where a C wave would equal A.

So if where I indicated an ABC at 0:44 in the video. This would mean (what would be) an A wave shooting through 41700, but instead we get a pullback, however there are some encouraging points.

I elaborate on the wave pattern we want to see (essentially a third wave) developing at 1:04. This would push us beyond 41300.

Ethereum

Not looking terribly encouraging at the moment.

There is no clear 4th or 5th wave, which would take us out of the triangle. Bitcoin is far better at the moment as Ethereum appears to be dawdling a bit, and not giving us a clear bull signal.

Gold

Gold is seeing a bigger decline than I was expecting.

There is no change on the wave count, which hasn’t surprised me really. If the decline continues for much further past point 4 (indicated at 4:54), the signal will be invalid.

Interesting as we previously discussed the rise of gold vs the decline of bitcoin, and of course the had done just that.

However, now we have bitcoin giving signs that it is in the way back up, where as gold looks to be falling away again.

Maybe they have an inverse relationship, where traders switch from one to the other – depending on which one looks best.

Currently bitcoin is looking a lot better than gold, certainly after the sell off marked in the gold chart.

Silver

Silver is looking like it hasn’t been affected so much.

We could still see and ABC (4). Not wishing to sound premature, I have marked up wave 5 (originating from 4). I discuss a bit more on the 5 minute chart.

Ftse 100

We were seeing the Ftse moving up to a high of 7217. Now we are seeing a potential 123, 4 with a 5 wave (8:35). An ABC here – another failure, would be a sell signal as this could become a 5th wave.

Having said this, a potential reversal pattern remains and we need to perhaps wait a little longer to let things develop.

Dax

Pullbacks and new highs are present in the Dax. I’m not really impressed in either direction, and possibly there will be a sell off in the near future to clear the air.

Dow Jones

The Dow wave count seems to be coming good with a 1, 2 and possible wave 3 in process. This requires further validation. A potential peak in place.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq may have seen its 5th wave after making new highs. A break below 18341 would be a negative sign.

My last trading update

The post Trader Update 17th June 2021 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

Bitcoin BTCUSD

Looks like we have a triangle on Bitcoin, and we could have a breakout on the upper trend line which is encouraging to an extent. However, there is more resistance ahead. There is a peak around 42990, but there is a possible impulsive pattern forming. I explain the the wave count at 1.12 that give an encouraging glimmer of hope for that breakout.

Ethereum
ETUSD

Looking more positive, with a wave 3 of 3 developing at 2908. A break above that level or 3000, would set the scene for a decent rally on Ethereum.

Gold

No change on gold, we have arrived at 3 of 3, but it is difficult to see the move from here on in. Possibly a wave 4.

Silver

Again, not much change, wave 3 potentially complete with a possible wave 4 in progress. A 5th wave still due.

Ftse

We are seeing a triangle on the Ftse, but price looks to be dithering at the moment. Just a mess, best to wait until there is some clarity.

Dax

Whilst the trend is up, the Dax doesn’t really seem to be achieving much at the moment. Again, another question mark.

Dow

Potentially another sell off could develop, but more confirmation required for a potential wave 1.

Nasdaq

A similar story to the Dow, looking like there is an ABC correction in the chart. But thereafter, just sideways action. Potentially a break low if it takes out current support.

Update for the 3rd June 2020 ends.

The post Trading Update 3rd June 2021 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

Bitcoin analysis
ABCD waves in place, target for E-wave trading around 39 -39200.
There is a possible wave five shown at 0.38, however it appears a bit flakey around (where marked) at points 1 & 2. Still looking for confirmation and looking pretty negative.

Ethereum (ETHUSD)
We have wave 5 in place, so on this one we are due a bigger decline. Only a bigger thrust from where we are now would mean a return of the uptrend.

Gold
In an uptrend, looking to be trading towards 200 levels (to be tested).

Silver
On track to see higher prices.

Ftse
Could be a new uptrend developing on the Ftse, with new highs being upon us for too long.

Dax
Is already making new highs, the uptrend looking alive and well.

Dow
A more positive response being above the 80% retracement, the uptrend looks to be on track.

Nasdaq
Still lagging a bit, but looking more positive than negative. But having said that we are near a major peak so things are getting a bit slower.

The post Trading Update 2nd June 2021 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

1. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5888 up 20 points with the spread betters now (05h00) quoting it at 5868 (-20). FTSE continues to flirt with triangular resistance and still nothing to question the uptrend. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

2. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7390 up 43 points and hereto we see the DAX flirting with the upper parameter – see chart above. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

3. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13577 up 13 points with the spreadbetters now quoting it at 13522 (-55). Similar action here with a fall back overnight. We remain 50% short of the NASDAQ via the ETF Proshares Trust Ultrashort QQQ

4. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 9101 down 130 points. We blipped above 9222 in a 5 wave form and are now falling back. I have a stop in place to buy at the high, 9288, as this would suggest some form of third wave rally.

5. US T-BOND

Bonds fell some more. We remain officially 50% short of shorter dated bonds via the ETF DB X-Trackers II IBOXX Short USD Treasuries Tr Index 1C (XUTS).

6. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold is also becalmed but another rally looks close, as I said Xtreme Stop could work wonders here. Only worry is the world and his dog seem positive! We are 100% long via the ETF (PHAU) and entered when Gold was around $1560.

7. FOREX

GBP/EUR is looking good and a move above 1.2475 would suggest five waves up. The GBP/USD is heading towards $1.65 as expected, now at $1.6250.

The post Opening Report – 20 September 2012 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

A quite day on the markets yesterday with Krautgap logging a small profit. The sideways action is actually forming a re-test of those key triangles on the DAX and FTSE and with the trend still clearly up, I intend to buy either a buying spike or a break to new highs (via Xtreme Stop) – this may be a shorter term trade (and hedge existing long-term shorts).

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5893 down 22 points with the spread betters now (03h00) quoting it at 5878 (-15). We have a mild break above triangular resistance and this small “test” is holding the upper parameter for now. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS….

The post Opening Report – 18 September 2012 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

I then managed to upset him, I believe by calling him a lucky monkey, and he then used the lucky monkey piece in his promo without giving me due credit which did not make me very happy either.

Anyway I decided to re-subscribe recently as I always enjoyed his work on socionomics and the tying in of popular music and film, among other things, to the mass psychology which, of course, also drives stock prices.

BUT Elliot Wave Theory is always so negative and here is an example which forms the first line of the September issue “Global markets and economies are mired in the early stages of the biggest disaster ever!”

The problem is that reading Elliot Wave Theory has always been an exercise in brainwashing yourself into a view of total gloom and despondency but the real world does not work that way.

Plus it does not help that he is most often wrong (hence the lucky monkey remark) starting with his buy signal the week before the 1987 Crash to his more recent comment (in August as I recall) that Gold is due a big fall due to deflation.

Elliot Wave Theory may be interesting, but I suspect I will stop reading it in the fairly near future.

By the way, I have just read that the gain on Apple between May 2011 and September 2012 accounted for the majority of the 16% gain on the NASDAQ 100 between those dates – ex-Apple the gain would have been only 5.4%!

The iPhone 5 was launched yesterday as “the biggest thing to happen to iPhone since iPhone” – not sure about that headline but it seems to tick all the boxes.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5782 down 10 points with the spread betters now (03h00) quoting it at 5777 (-5). Triangular resistance, as discussed yesterday, is around 5850. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7343 up 33 points and yesterday’s high at 7410 hit triangular resistance – see chart below. The fall off that peak looks corrective so far. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

The post Elliot Wave Theory – 13 September 2012 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

Anyway I was having dinner with a friend in one of the restaurants which are supported by poles laid into the beach and we started to discuss Apple.

He was saying that a few people are now suggesting the best is behind this company and it is time to go short.

I can see a number of compelling reasons to agree not the least of which is the huge prices Apple charges for its products as we now see similarly attractive products entering the market in direct competition.

Plus I recently bought an iPad and I cannot say I am too impressed. Why on earth you have to pay an additional £100 for an additional 16 GB and yet another £100 just so it can take a SIM card beats me – the expression “rip-off” springs rapidly to mind!

Anyway I extracted my Nokia E5 (cost c. £100 for the whole unit including ability to take a SIM card and it will feed my computer a very effective internet link), looked up Apple on IG and promptly put on a “test” short position at £2 per point. Little did I know!

Within seconds I was down £400, and seconds later I was up £400!! That will teach me to pay more attention! Anyway I closed for a £400 profit and Apple and I are now square as that covered the cost of the iPad!

Otherwise markets are still pretty quiet – incidentally if I had only held onto my £2 pp short of Apple I would now be up around £4000 on that “small” position.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5793 down 1 points with the spread betters now (03h00) quoting it at 5763 (-30). FTSE is stalling around 5800 but higher prices still seem indicated. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7213 down 1 points and has spent the last two sessions going sideways in a narrow range. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13254 down 52 points with the spreadbetters now quoting it at 13224 (-30). The sharp fall on Apple is of some concern but little to go on right now. We remain 50% short of the NASDAQ via the ETF Proshares Trust Ultrashort QQQ

The post Opening Report – 11 September 2012 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.

The post Opening Report – 19 July 2012 appeared first on John Piper Trader | Author & Trader.